LUC MICHEL (ЛЮК МИШЕЛЬ) & EODE/
Luc MICHEL pour EODE/
Quotidien géopolitique – Geopolitical Daily/
2018 05 09/
« Being taught by the enemy is an honor and a duty »
– General Karl Hausofer (1869-1946),
the geopolitician of the « Continental Blocks ».
“the uncertainty surrounding the nuclear deal will reaffirm Tehran’s desire for a robust defense policy that includes the very activities fueling U.S. fears: ballistic missile development, covert operations and support for regional militias”
– Stratfor Worldview (April 30, 2018).
I gave my analysis yesterday on the withdrawal of the American signature on the Geneva Accords on Iran’s nuclear power (JCPOA) (1). This decision did not surprise me because I was predicting it as early as December 2016 (2). However, I am surprised by all this media and political tragi-comedy, especially at the Paris level, on a foreseeable and announced decision at the heart of the Trump candidate. All the more surprised that Trump is the choice of a political scenario, the choice precisely lobbies opposed to this agreement, coalesced by the Israeli Likud and AIPAC.
I explained yesterday how the crisis between Washington and Tehran was not between two opposing fronts, but between a geopolitical triangle: Tel Aviv, Washington, Tehran. AND that in this triangle, it was the Israeli clan that set the tone and the measure. It was the Likud-AIPAC Axis that rallied Trump (the pitch being prepared by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kuchner and leader of AIPAC’s radical wing, and Mike Pence, vice-president, one of them). men of the pro-Israel Lobby for 30 years) (3). And from 2015 organized the political and diplomatic fight, in the USA, but also in the Middle East and Paris (see the position of Fabius in Geneva), to destroy the Geneva Accords. In this geopolitical triangle, US interests go beyond those of Tel Aviv. Or rather those of Israel as the Likud conceives them.
My absolute principle is that it is useless to read the friends, but on the contrary that we must read the enemy. « To be taught by the adversary is an honor and a duty, » said General Karl Hausofer, the geopolitician of the « Continental Blocks, » rightly. On April 30, the Think Tank ‘Stratfor’ published an analysis of Israeli action that led to the destruction of the Geneva Accords.
Precisely the Axis Likud-AIPAC offensive in the USA, seen from the USA …
‘Stratfor’ insist that “Netanyahu’s presentation was partially designed to convince countries in the European Union that the JCPOA is insufficient, but he may not need to. Netanyahu’s message was coordinated with the United States ahead of time, indicating an increasingly clear alignment between Israel and the White House. Based on their rhetoric, both are growing convinced about the benefits of abandoning the JCPOA and doubling down on efforts to counter Iran’s regional activities.”
Behind all this announced crisis, there is a double will of confrontation, to see of war, as well in Whashington (where the hacks of the CIA and the Pentagon are in command with Trump) than in Tel Aviv, against Iran : “Recent increased Israeli airstrikes against Iranian assets in Syria suggest that Israel is fully willing to challenge Iran militarily. As it pursues strategies to counter Iran’s military and nuclear ambitions, Israel will seek an even stronger U.S. backing.
The United States could seek to reinstate sanctions on Iran’s banking sector and central bank, which could force European and Asian consumers to reduce imports of Iranian oil. A decline in Iranian oil exports would exacerbate the pain Iranian citizens are already feeling as a result of currency-related and economic problems.”
# RESUME FRANÇAIS :
VU DES USA : COMMENT ISRAEL A DETRUIT LES ACCORDS SUR LE NUCLEAIRE IRANIEN (STRATFOR)
« Se faire enseigner par l’adversaire est un honneur et un devoir »
– Général Karl Hausofer (1869-1946),
le géopoliticien des « Blocs continentaux ».
« L’incertitude entourant l’accord nucléaire va réaffirmer le désir de Téhéran d’une politique de défense solide qui inclut les activités mêmes qui alimentent les craintes américaines: le développement de missiles balistiques, les opérations secrètes et le soutien aux milices régionales »
– Stratfor Worldview (30 avril 2018).
Je donnais mon analyse hier sur le retrait de la signature américaine sur les Accords de Genève sur le nucléaire iranien (1). Décision qui ne m’a pas surprise parce que je la pronostiquais dès décembre 2016 (2). Je suis surpris par contre par toute cette tragi-comédie médiatique et politique, en particulier au niveau de Paris, sur une décision prévisible et annoncée au cœur du programme du candidat Trump. D’autant plus surpris que Trump est le choix d’un scénario politique, le choix précisément des lobbies opposés à cet accord, coalisés par le Likoud israélien et l’AIPAC.
J’expliquais hier comment la crise entre Washington et Téhéran n’était pas entre deux fronts opposés, mais entre un triangle géopolitique : Tel-aviv, Washington, Téhéran. ET que dans ce triangle, c’était le clan israélien qui donnait le ton et la mesure. C’est l’Axe Likoud-AIPAC qui a rallié Trump (le terrain étant préparé par Jared Kuchner, gendre de Trump, et dirigeant de l’aile radicale de l’AIPAC, et Mike Pence, le vice-président, l’un des hommes-liges du Lobby pro-israélien depuis 30 ans) (3). Et dès 2015 organisé le combat politique et diplomatique, aux USA mêmes, mais aussi au Proche-Orient et à Paris (voir la position de Fabius à Genève), pour détruire les Accords de Genève. Dans ce triangle géopolitique, les intérêts des USA passent après ceux de Tel-Aviv. Ou plutôt de ceux d’Israël tel que le Likoud les conçoit.
Mon principe absolu est qu’il ne sert à rien de lire les amis, mais au contraire qu’il faut lire l’ennenmi. « Se faire enseigner par l’adversaire est un honneur et un devoir », affirmait avec raison le Général Karl Hausofer, le géopoliticien des « Blocs continentaux ». Le Think Tank ‘Stratfor’ a précisément publié ce 30 avril une analyse de l’action israélienne qui a conduit à la destruction des Accords de Genève.
Précisément l’offensive de l’Axe Likoud-AIPAC aux USA mêmes, vue des USA …
«Stratfor» insiste sur le fait que « la présentation de Netanyahu a été partiellement conçue pour convaincre les pays de l’Union européenne que le JCPOA est insuffisant, mais il peut ne pas avoir besoin de le faire. Le message de Netanyahou a été coordonné avec les États-Unis à l’avance, indiquant un alignement de plus en plus clair entre Israël et la Maison Blanche. Sur la base de leur rhétorique, ils sont de plus en plus convaincus des avantages de l’abandon du JCPOA et du doublement des efforts pour contrer les activités régionales de l’Iran. »
Derrière toute cette crise annoncée, il y a une double volonté de confrontation, voir de guerre, aussi bien à Whashington (où les faucons de la CIA et du Pentagone sont aux commandes avec Trump) qu’à Tel-Aviv, contre l’Iran : « Les récentes frappes aériennes israéliennes contre les moyens iraniens en Syrie suggèrent qu’Israël est tout à fait disposé à défier l’Iran militairement. Alors qu’il poursuit des stratégies pour contrer les ambitions militaires et nucléaires de l’Iran, Israël cherchera à obtenir un soutien encore plus fort des États-Unis.
Les Etats-Unis pourraient chercher à réinstaurer des sanctions contre le secteur bancaire et la banque centrale iraniens, ce qui pourrait contraindre les consommateurs européens et asiatiques à réduire leurs importations de pétrole iranien. Une baisse des exportations iraniennes de pétrole exacerberait la douleur que ressentent déjà les citoyens iraniens à la suite de problèmes liés aux devises et à l’économie. «
# DOCUMENT/
“DID ISRAEL JUST KILL THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL?”
(STRATFOR WORLDVIEW, APRIL 30, 2018)
Israel claims that Tehran held onto research related to Iran’s nuclear weapons program and has lied to the international community about its intentions.
The announcement was timed to influence the United States and the European Union just days before the White House reaches a May 12 deadline to issue sanctions waivers in accordance with the terms of the Iran nuclear deal.
Israel seeks stronger U.S. backing for its bold military moves against Iran in Syria by characterizing Tehran as unreliable and ill-intentioned.
In a prime-time press conference from Tel Aviv, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Israeli intelligence had smuggled a cache of evidence out of Iran. Dubbed Iran’s atomic archive, the 100,000 files allegedly show that Tehran sought to conceal a nuclear weapons program. Throughout his presentation, Netanyahu argued that Iran lied to the international community — and to watchdogs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) — about the existence of a secret nuclear weapons program and sensitive research that Iran held on to for future use.
While much of what Netanyahu presented has been said before — Israel and some in the United States have accused Iran of nuclear deception numerous times — the Israeli premier argued that Iran violated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, by failing to come clean during 2015 talks with the IAEA. Just days before a May 12 deadline for the United States to issue sanctions waivers to Iran as part of the JCPOA, Netanyahu’s presentation sought to discredit Iran as a negotiating partner in the eyes of the international community.
The Big Picture
As the United States narrows in on strategies to target and contain Iran’s regional activities, Washington’s crosshairs are focused more and more on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the Iran nuclear deal. The United States is trying to negotiate stronger measures to supplement the deal — thanks in part to lobbying efforts from regional allies such as Israel — but impinging on the nuclear deal will not halt Iran’s activity. Rather, as Stratfor’s Second-Quarter Forecast said, the uncertainty surrounding the nuclear deal will reaffirm Tehran’s desire for a robust defense policy that includes the very activities fueling U.S. fears: ballistic missile development, covert operations and support for regional militias.
Iran’s Arc of Influence
European countries, including France and Germany, recently voiced their concerns about the full extent of Iran’s activities, but continue to support the JCPOA as the best framework for countering Iran’s nuclear ambitions. However, Israel is pressuring the European Union to abandon the nuclear deal and potentially even reinstate the sanctions the deal lifted. To ensure whatever sanctions levied against it are ineffective, Iran is seeking to keep the European Union and the United States from uniting to throw their combined weight behind them. But Netanyahu is hoping that his portrayal of Iran as a guilty party will galvanize opposition to Iran in the West.
Netanyahu’s presentation was partially designed to convince countries in the European Union that the JCPOA is insufficient, but he may not need to. Netanyahu’s message was coordinated with the United States ahead of time, indicating an increasingly clear alignment between Israel and the White House. Based on their rhetoric, both are growing convinced about the benefits of abandoning the JCPOA and doubling down on efforts to counter Iran’s regional activities.
Potential Outcomes
Here’s what we’re watching for moving forward:
The European Union may be willing to meet U.S. demands by forming a supplemental agreement that imposes sanctions designed to stop Iran’s regional activities and ballistic missile program. But, even if the United States withdraws from the original agreement on the JCPOA by refusing to approve sanctions waivers on May 12, the European Union is unlikely to reissue sanctions lifted by the JCPOA without clear proof that Iran is not holding up its side of the bargain.
Israel says it will submit its new intelligence to the IAEA. If the files contain concrete proof, the IAEA could have a legitimate reason to request access to inspect new sites, potentially even military sites not originally included in the JCPOA. If Iran is found in violation of the JCPOA, the United States will have an excuse to leave the deal, which the current administration believe is insufficient to contain the full spectrum of Iran’s regional activities.
Recent increased Israeli airstrikes against Iranian assets in Syria suggest that Israel is fully willing to challenge Iran militarily. As it pursues strategies to counter Iran’s military and nuclear ambitions, Israel will seek an even stronger U.S. backing.
The United States could seek to reinstate sanctions on Iran’s banking sector and central bank, which could force European and Asian consumers to reduce imports of Iranian oil. A decline in Iranian oil exports would exacerbate the pain Iranian citizens are already feeling as a result of currency-related and economic problems.
(Stratfor Worldview, “Did Israel Just Kill the Iran Nuclear Deal?”, April 30, 2018)
NOTES ET RENVOIS :
(1) See (in French) on LUC MICHEL’S GEOPOLITICAL DAILY/
L’AXE TRUMP-LIKOUD-AIPAC CONTRE L’IRAN : TRUMP SORT DES ACCORDS SUR LE NUCLEAIRE IRANIEN ET REPREND LA BATAILLE DES SANCTIONS CONTRE TEHERAN
(2) See (in French) Luc MICHEL, EODE THINK TANK/ LA PRESIDENCE TRUMP : VERS UN NOUVEAU STADE DE L’IMPERIALISME AMERICAIN …
(3) See (in French) Luc MICHEL, EODE/ GEOPOLITIQUE/ RENFORCEMENT DE L’AXE WASHINGTON-TEL AVIV : TRUMP EST LE PRESIDENT LE PLUS PRO-ISRAELIEN DE TOUTE L’HISTOIRE
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