LUC MICHEL (ЛЮК МИШЕЛЬ) & EODE/
Luc MICHEL pour EODE/
Quotidien géopolitique – Geopolitical Daily/
2018 04 20/
Hot news focuses us on the hot fronts of the new « Cold War 2.0 », Syria or Korea. This is where the journalists think, lost in a geopolitics they do not understand, believe find the march of the world. But that advances on warm or cold fronts, where nevertheless things move inexorably. As in Western Europe, which remains the key to Eurasia. Or in Central Asia, where is its geopolitical pivot, Uzbekistan.
Central Asia has been hotly contested between the US and Russia. Taking advantage of the weakening of Russia and Moscow’s initial illusions about the « Western war on terror, » Washington had established military bases there, in fact targeting Moscow and Beijing, in the aftermath of Afghanistan’s attack on Afghanistan. Taliban. It will take almost 15 years for poutine to regain control.
In the heart of this Central Asia, therefore, Uzbekistan, central state and geopolitical pivot. For reasons related to its geography itself (it will be recalled that geography is the origin of geopolitical science). George Friedman (the former boss of ‘Stratfor’), in its “Geopolitical Futures”, recalls in a short analysis (full of rancor, explained by the loss of US control over the country) what Tashkent owes to his geography: “Uzbekistan plays a pivotal role in regional affairs, and it is able to do so because of its geography – and its geographic position. It is the only Central Asian state that borders every other. Like Kazakhstan, it is rich with oil and natural gas, the revenue from which has enabled it to have at least the semblance of self-determination. It is the second-largest Central Asian state by area and the largest by population. In fact, roughly half the population of the entire region lives within its borders, their livelihoods aided in large measure by the fact that Uzbekistan boasts more land in the Fergana Valley – the most hospitable place for human life in the region, with its comparatively fertile soil and mild climate – than any other country.”
RESUME FRANCAIS/
L’OUZBÉKISTAN : LE PIVOT GEOPOLITIQUE DE L’ASIE CENTRALE
L’actualité brûlante nous focalise sur les fronts chauds de la nouvelle “Guerre froide 2.0”, Syrie ou Corée. C’est là pensent les journalistes, égarés dans une Géopolitique qu’ils ne comprennent pas, croient trouver la marche du Monde. Mais celui avance sur des fronts tièdes ou froids, où pourtant les choses bougent inexorablement. Comme en Europe occidentale, qui reste la clé de l’Eurasie. Ou encore en Asie centrale, où se trouve son pivot géopolitique, l’Ouzbékistan.
L’Asie centrale a été très disputée entre les USA et la Russie. Profitant de l’affaiblissement de la Russie et des illusions initiales de Moscou sur la « guerre occidentale au terrorisme », Washington y avait établi des bases militaires, visant en fait Moscou et Pékin, dans la foulée de l’attaque contre l’Afghanistan des Talibans. Il faudra presque 15 ans à poutine pour reprendre le contrôle.
Au coeur de cette Asie centrale donc l’Ouzbékistan, état central et pivot géopolitique. Pour des raisons tenant à sa géographie même (on rappellera que la géographie est l’origine de la science géopolitique). George Friedman (l’ex patron de ‘Stratfor’) rappelle, dans son “Geopolitical Futures”, dans une courte analyse (pleine de rancœur, s’expliquant par la perte de contrôle US sur le pays) ce que Tachkent doit à sa géographie : « L’Ouzbékistan joue un rôle central dans les affaires régionales, et il est capable de le faire en raison de sa géographie et de sa position géographique. C’est le seul état d’Asie centrale qui soit limitrophe de tous les autres. Comme le Kazakhstan, il est riche en pétrole et en gaz naturel, dont les revenus lui ont permis d’avoir au moins l’apparence d’autodétermination. C’est le deuxième plus grand État d’Asie centrale par région et le plus grand par la population. En fait, environ la moitié de la population de la région vit à l’intérieur de ses frontières, ses moyens de subsistance étant largement aidés par le fait que l’Ouzbékistan possède plus de terres dans la vallée de Fergana – le lieu le plus hospitalier de la région. sol et climat doux – que tout autre pays ».
LUC MICHEL (ЛЮК МИШЕЛЬ) & EODE
# DOCUMENT:
“UZBEKISTAN’S PIVOTAL ROLE IN CENTRAL ASIA”
(APRIL 20, 2018)
“Uzbekistan plays a pivotal role in regional affairs, and it is able to do so because of its geography – and its geographic position. It is the only Central Asian state that borders every other. Like Kazakhstan, it is rich with oil and natural gas, the revenue from which has enabled it to have at least the semblance of self-determination. It is the second-largest Central Asian state by area and the largest by population. In fact, roughly half the population of the entire region lives within its borders, their livelihoods aided in large measure by the fact that Uzbekistan boasts more land in the Fergana Valley – the most hospitable place for human life in the region, with its comparatively fertile soil and mild climate – than any other country.
“Since the fall of the Soviet Union, which governed Uzbekistan as a satellite state, the country had had only one ruler: Islam Karimov, a strong-armed, unapologetically clannish dictator. That is until 2016, when he died and was replaced by Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Shortly thereafter, Mirziyoyev announced reforms meant to open the country up to the outside world economically and cultivated ties with potential patrons, including Russia, Europe and China. More important, he began to improve relations with other Central Asian states. Cross-border disputes related to access and usage of energy and water resources are gradually being solved.
“Today, Uzbekistan has all the appearances of a country on the rise. It is prosperous and stable by the standards of the region. Its position, right in the heart of Central Asia, attracts the attention of major geopolitical players, who well understand that access to Uzbekistan is tantamount to access to the Middle East, a major One Belt, One Road thoroughfare and Russia. And Mirziyoyev’s liberalizations will only spark more interest from the international community.
“But appearances can be deceptive. Beneficial though Mirziyoyev’s reforms might be, their uses are merely counterfeit. The cool logic behind them is that they help Mirziyoyev consolidate power and endear him to his subjects. In a place such as Uzbekistan, the tactics a leader use may be liberal or draconian, but the outcome is the same: Uzbekistan is not going to be anything other than a centralized state where the president has great power.”
(The post “Uzbekistan’s Pivotal Role in Central Asia” appeared first on Geopolitical Futures)
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